All 32 teams
Rank, change since last week, rating bar (longer = stronger), and the one result that moved them.
| # | Team | Chg | Rating | This week | Next |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 49ers6–1 · net EPA 1st | no change | +7.4 | Bye in Week 8. Offense 2nd, defense 11th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.4 points. | vs LVSun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 2 | Rams4–4 · net EPA 2nd | no change | +6.0 | Beat the Chargers 24–9 in Week 8. Offense 4th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. | at WASSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 3 | Jaguars5–2 · net EPA 3rd | up 5 | +5.3 | Beat the Colts 42–7 in Week 8. Offense 7th, defense 6th by EPA per play. | at BALThu, Nov 5 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 4 | Bills6–1 · net EPA 4th | up 1 | +4.9 | Beat the Ravens 36–10 in Week 8. Offense 1st, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | at MINMon, Nov 9 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 5 | Bengals5–2 · net EPA 9th | down 2 | +4.9 | Beat the Titans 43–36 (OT) in Week 8. Offense 10th, defense 16th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.7 points. | vs ATLSun, Nov 8 · 8:30 AM CT |
| 6 | Bears6–2 · net EPA 7th | no change | +4.7 | Won at the Seahawks 34–17 in Week 8. Offense 8th, defense 12th by EPA per play. C.Williams at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | vs TBSun, Nov 8 · 7:20 PM CT |
| 7 | Packers5–3 · net EPA 6th | no change | +4.3 | Beat the Panthers 27–19 in Week 8. Offense 11th, defense 5th by EPA per play. | at NESun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 8 | Chiefs5–2 · net EPA 8th | down 4 | +4.1 | Lost at the Broncos 28–24 in Week 8. Offense 9th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | vs NYJSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 9 | Patriots5–3 · net EPA 5th | no change | +4.0 | Won at the Dolphins 24–19 in Week 8. Offense 5th, defense 14th by EPA per play. | vs GBSun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 10 | Buccaneers3–5 · net EPA 11th | up 2 | +2.3 | Beat the Falcons 16–0 in Week 8. Offense 23rd, defense 1st by EPA per play. | at CHISun, Nov 8 · 7:20 PM CT |
| 11 | Ravens4–4 · net EPA 15th | down 1 | +2.0 | Lost at the Bills 36–10 in Week 8. Offense 12th, defense 18th by EPA per play. L.Jackson at quarterback counts +1.6 points. | vs JAXThu, Nov 5 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 12 | Seahawks4–4 · net EPA 12th | down 1 | +1.7 | Lost to the Bears 34–17 in Week 8. Offense 19th, defense 4th by EPA per play. | vs ARISun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 13 | Lions5–2 · net EPA 10th | no change | +1.6 | Beat the Vikings 19–15 in Week 8. Offense 3rd, defense 31st by EPA per play. | at MIASun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 14 | Steelers6–2 · net EPA 14th | up 3 | +1.3 | Beat the Browns 27–6 in Week 8. Offense 16th, defense 7th by EPA per play. | Bye |
| 15 | Broncos6–2 · net EPA 13th | down 1 | +1.3 | Beat the Chiefs 28–24 in Week 8. Offense 13th, defense 10th by EPA per play. | at CARSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 16 | Texans2–5 · net EPA 17th | no change | +1.0 | Bye in Week 8. Offense 14th, defense 19th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | at LACSun, Nov 8 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 17 | Cowboys3–5 · net EPA 16th | down 2 | +0.6 | Lost to the Cardinals 33–30 (OT) in Week 8. Offense 6th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. | at INDSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 18 | Vikings6–1 · net EPA 21st | up 2 | −0.1 | Lost at the Lions 19–15 in Week 8. Offense 29th, defense 2nd by EPA per play. K.Murray at quarterback counts +1.3 points. | vs BUFMon, Nov 9 · 7:15 PM CT |
| 19 | Jets2–6 · net EPA 25th | up 4 | −0.5 | Lost to the Raiders 38–33 in Week 8. Offense 24th, defense 20th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +2.0 points. | at KCSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 20 | Panthers3–4 · net EPA 19th | down 1 | −0.5 | Lost at the Packers 27–19 in Week 8. Offense 15th, defense 21st by EPA per play. | vs DENSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 21 | Commanders2–4–1 · net EPA 20th | up 1 | −0.6 | Beat the Eagles 27–10 in Week 8. Offense 18th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. | vs LASun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 22 | Colts2–6 · net EPA 23rd | down 4 | −1.4 | Lost at the Jaguars 42–7 in Week 8. Offense 21st, defense 24th by EPA per play. | vs DALSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 23 | Falcons3–5 · net EPA 22nd | down 2 | −1.6 | Lost at the Buccaneers 16–0 in Week 8. Offense 25th, defense 9th by EPA per play. | vs CINSun, Nov 8 · 8:30 AM CT |
| 24 | Cardinals3–5 · net EPA 24th | no change | −2.0 | Won at the Cowboys 33–30 (OT) in Week 8. Offense 20th, defense 25th by EPA per play. | at SEASun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 25 | Giants4–2–1 · net EPA 18th | no change | −2.2 | Bye in Week 8. Offense 17th, defense 17th by EPA per play. J.McCarthy at quarterback counts −1.8 points. | at PHISun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 26 | Dolphins1–6 · net EPA 26th | no change | −2.6 | Lost to the Patriots 24–19 in Week 8. Offense 22nd, defense 28th by EPA per play. | vs DETSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 27 | Raiders4–4 · net EPA 30th | up 2 | −3.3 | Won at the Jets 38–33 in Week 8. Offense 28th, defense 27th by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.6 points. | at SFSun, Nov 8 · 3:25 PM CT |
| 28 | Saints2–5 · net EPA 28th | up 2 | −3.5 | Bye in Week 8. Offense 26th, defense 26th by EPA per play. | vs CLESun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 29 | Browns5–3 · net EPA 31st | down 2 | −3.8 | Lost at the Steelers 27–6 in Week 8. Offense 32nd, defense 13th by EPA per play. D.Watson at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | at NOSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
| 30 | Chargers0–7 · net EPA 27th | down 2 | −3.9 | Lost at the Rams 24–9 in Week 8. Offense 31st, defense 8th by EPA per play. | vs HOUSun, Nov 8 · 3:05 PM CT |
| 31 | Titans1–7 · net EPA 32nd | no change | −6.5 | Lost at the Bengals 43–36 (OT) in Week 8. Offense 30th, defense 30th by EPA per play. | Bye |
| 32 | Eagles2–6 · net EPA 29th | no change | −8.7 | Lost at the Commanders 27–10 in Week 8. Offense 27th, defense 29th by EPA per play. T.McKee at quarterback counts −3.8 points. | vs NYGSun, Nov 8 · 12:00 PM CT |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 9. Change: places up or down from Week 8. Net EPA: the team's rank by offense minus defense EPA per play. Record: before Week 9.
Biggest moves
Since last week's rankings, and why.
Up
- Jaguars +5 to 3rdBeat the Colts 42–7 in Week 8. Offense 7th, defense 6th by EPA per play.
- Jets +4 to 19thLost to the Raiders 38–33 in Week 8. Offense 24th, defense 20th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +2.0 points.
- Steelers +3 to 14thBeat the Browns 27–6 in Week 8. Offense 16th, defense 7th by EPA per play.
Down
- Chiefs −4 to 8thLost at the Broncos 28–24 in Week 8. Offense 9th, defense 15th by EPA per play.
- Colts −4 to 22ndLost at the Jaguars 42–7 in Week 8. Offense 21st, defense 24th by EPA per play.
- Bengals −2 to 5thBeat the Titans 43–36 (OT) in Week 8. Offense 10th, defense 16th by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +2.7 points.
Record vs rating
Each dot is a team: across, its rank by record; down, its rank by our rating (1st top left). Off the diagonal: better or worse than the record says.
Better than their record: Rams (4–4, 2nd by rating), Buccaneers (3–5, 10th by rating), Texans (2–5, 16th by rating). Worse than their record: Vikings (6–1, 18th by rating), Browns (5–3, 29th by rating), Giants (4–2–1, 25th by rating).
Rank by week
How each team's rank changed this season, Weeks 1–9. Point at or tap a line (or its label) to bring it forward; it links to the team page.