Entering Week 3, the 49ers rate highest (+4.8 points against an average team on a neutral field), ahead of the Rams (+4.1) and the Bills (+4.0); the Falcons (−5.9) are last.
Since Week 2, the Panthers rose the most, 4 places to 19th, and the Bears fell the most, 21 places to 30th.
Reconstructed: these rankings were worked out after Week 3 began, from the games before it, the same way as every week.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
| # | Move | Team | Record | Rating | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | up 1 | San Francisco 49ersBeat the Dolphins 35–13 in Week 2. Offense 3rd, defense 9th by EPA per play. B.Purdy at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 2–0 | +4.8 | — |
| 2 | up 1 | Los Angeles RamsBeat the Giants 28–6 in Week 2. Offense 2nd, defense 8th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +4.1 | — |
| 3 | down 2 | Buffalo BillsBeat the Lions 41–31 in Week 2. Offense 1st, defense 28th by EPA per play. | 2–0 | +4.0 | — |
| 4 | up 1 | New England PatriotsBeat the Steelers 20–3 in Week 2. Offense 4th, defense 5th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +3.5 | — |
| 5 | down 1 | Green Bay PackersWon at the Jets 20–17 in Week 2. Offense 9th, defense 10th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +2.9 | — |
| 6 | no change | Indianapolis ColtsLost at the Chiefs 33–30 in Week 2. Offense 7th, defense 32nd by EPA per play. D.Jones at quarterback counts +1.3 points. | 0–2 | +2.6 | — |
| 7 | up 1 | Kansas City ChiefsBeat the Colts 33–30 in Week 2. Offense 10th, defense 13th by EPA per play. P.Mahomes at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 2–0 | +2.6 | — |
| 8 | up 2 | Baltimore RavensLost to the Saints 24–17 in Week 2. Offense 11th, defense 12th by EPA per play. L.Jackson at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 1–1 | +2.5 | — |
| 9 | down 2 | Dallas CowboysBeat the Commanders 37–20 in Week 2. Offense 5th, defense 31st by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +2.2 | — |
| 10 | up 2 | Cincinnati BengalsWon at the Texans 20–6 in Week 2. Offense 18th, defense 1st by EPA per play. J.Burrow at quarterback counts +1.7 points. | 2–0 | +1.9 | — |
| 11 | no change | Detroit LionsLost at the Bills 41–31 in Week 2. Offense 8th, defense 29th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +1.6 | — |
| 12 | up 2 | Jacksonville JaguarsLost at the Broncos 20–13 in Week 2. Offense 12th, defense 15th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +1.2 | — |
| 13 | up 2 | Houston TexansLost to the Bengals 20–6 in Week 2. Offense 21st, defense 20th by EPA per play. C.Stroud at quarterback counts +1.1 points. | 0–2 | +0.5 | — |
| 14 | up 3 | Denver BroncosBeat the Jaguars 20–13 in Week 2. Offense 14th, defense 19th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +0.5 | — |
| 15 | up 3 | Philadelphia EaglesWon at the Titans 24–20 in Week 2. Offense 16th, defense 23rd by EPA per play. | 2–0 | +0.4 | — |
| 16 | no change | Pittsburgh SteelersLost at the Patriots 20–3 in Week 2. Offense 22nd, defense 6th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | +0.1 | — |
| 17 | up 3 | Arizona CardinalsLost to the Seahawks 31–7 in Week 2. Offense 20th, defense 14th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | −0.1 | — |
| 18 | up 1 | Washington CommandersLost at the Cowboys 37–20 in Week 2. Offense 15th, defense 26th by EPA per play. | 0–2 | −0.1 | — |
| 19 | up 4 | Carolina PanthersWon at the Falcons 34–3 in Week 2. Offense 23rd, defense 16th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | −0.3 | — |
| 20 | up 1 | Tampa Bay BuccaneersLost to the Browns 23–19 in Week 2. Offense 19th, defense 17th by EPA per play. | 0–2 | −0.4 | — |
| 21 | up 1 | Los Angeles ChargersLost to the Raiders 26–14 in Week 2. Offense 25th, defense 22nd by EPA per play. | 0–2 | −1.0 | — |
| 22 | up 3 | Minnesota VikingsWon at the Bears 9–3 in Week 2. Offense 29th, defense 4th by EPA per play. C.Wentz at quarterback counts +1.5 points. | 2–0 | −1.1 | — |
| 23 | up 3 | New Orleans SaintsWon at the Ravens 24–17 in Week 2. Offense 27th, defense 18th by EPA per play. T.Shough at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 1–1 | −1.6 | — |
| 24 | no change | Miami DolphinsLost at the 49ers 35–13 in Week 2. Offense 24th, defense 27th by EPA per play. | 0–2 | −1.6 | — |
| 25 | up 2 | New York JetsLost to the Packers 20–17 in Week 2. Offense 30th, defense 7th by EPA per play. G.Smith at quarterback counts +1.2 points. | 1–1 | −1.9 | — |
| 26 | up 3 | Seattle SeahawksWon at the Cardinals 31–7 in Week 2. Offense 13th, defense 3rd by EPA per play. D.Lock at quarterback counts −3.5 points. | 2–0 | −1.9 | — |
| 27 | down 14 | New York GiantsLost at the Rams 28–6 in Week 2. Offense 17th, defense 30th by EPA per play. J.Winston at quarterback counts −2.2 points. | 1–1 | −2.9 | — |
| 28 | no change | Tennessee TitansLost to the Eagles 24–20 in Week 2. Offense 28th, defense 25th by EPA per play. | 0–2 | −3.4 | — |
| 29 | up 1 | Las Vegas RaidersWon at the Chargers 26–14 in Week 2. Offense 31st, defense 2nd by EPA per play. K.Cousins at quarterback counts +1.0 points. | 2–0 | −3.5 | — |
| 30 | down 21 | Chicago BearsLost to the Vikings 9–3 in Week 2. Offense 6th, defense 21st by EPA per play. Tyson Bagent at quarterback counts −6.7 points. | 1–1 | −4.5 | — |
| 31 | up 1 | Cleveland BrownsWon at the Buccaneers 23–19 in Week 2. Offense 32nd, defense 24th by EPA per play. | 1–1 | −5.0 | — |
| 32 | down 1 | Atlanta FalconsLost to the Panthers 34–3 in Week 2. Offense 26th, defense 11th by EPA per play. C.Rush at quarterback counts −4.1 points. | 0–2 | −5.9 | — |
Rating: our model's points against an average team on a neutral field, from the team's opponent-adjusted EPA per play and its expected starting quarterback, using only games before Week 3. Move: places up or down from Week 2. Record: before Week 3. Playoffs: the team's playoff chance entering the week, from our 20,000 simulations of the rest of the season (the simulation began after this week, so none is shown).
We play out the rest of the 2026 season 20,000 times, from the same starting number every time, so the same results and predictions always give the same chances.