3 of 4 models favor the Dolphins.
On average the models have the Dolphins by 0.4 points, a 51% win chance.
Early prediction, updates weekly until kickoff.
Data through Week 5's games (the last played Mon, Oct 12), from nflverse play-by-play; nflverse last published it .
TV listings: ESPN
| Model | Says | Win chance |
|---|---|---|
| Consensus (our call)The average of Our model, Elo, SRS and ESPN FPI (whichever are there); the market is left out. This is our call. | Dolphins by 0.4 | 51% |
| Our model ExperimentalOur ratings from nflverse play-by-play: opponent-adjusted EPA per play, home field and the starting quarterback, frozen on the 2024 season and tested once on 2025. Experimental. | Dolphins by 0.4 | 51% |
| EloEvery team's Elo rating from every game since 1999 (FiveThirtyEight's method). | Chargers by 0.4 | 51% |
| SRSSimple Rating System: points scored minus allowed, adjusted for the schedule, blended with last season early on. Settings chosen by hand, not tuned. | Dolphins by 1.4 | 54% |
| ESPN FPIESPN's Football Power Index matchup predictor, read from ESPN before kickoff. Read in the week of the game. | Available game week | — |
| RecordThe team with the better record this season; equal records go to the home team. A winner only. | Dolphins | — |
Our model is experimental. Season so far (79 games, Weeks 1–4 reconstructed): it missed the final margin by 9.8 points on average, the market's margin by 9.8; ours was closer in 38 of 79. Scorecard →
Not named yet. The quarterbacks we assume show here in game week: once every earlier game is in, or two days before Week 16's first kickoff.
The official Week 16 injury report isn't out yet. It shows here once nflverse has it, in the week of the game.
Headlines and a line or two from each outlet's own feed, linked to the original; the stories are theirs, not ours.
Opponent-adjusted, from nflverse play-by-play, through Week 5 (the games played so far); league rank in brackets.
| Chargers | Dolphins | |
|---|---|---|
| Net EPA per play | −0.10 (28th) | −0.11 (30th) |
| Offense, EPA per play | −0.15 (32nd) | −0.06 (28th) |
| Defense, EPA per play allowed (lower is better) | −0.05 (8th) | +0.05 (24th) |
| Passing offense, EPA per dropback | −0.15 (32nd) | −0.05 (27th) |
| Rushing offense, EPA per run | −0.16 (26th) | −0.07 (17th) |
| Offense success rate | 40% (29th) | 40% (30th) |
The Chargers won 3 of the last 5 meetings.
| Oct 12, 2025Week 6, 2025 | Chargers 29, Dolphins 27at Miami |
| Sep 10, 2023Week 1, 2023 | Dolphins 36, Chargers 34at Los Angeles |
| Dec 11, 2022Week 14, 2022 | Chargers 23, Dolphins 17at Los Angeles |
| Nov 15, 2020Week 10, 2020 | Dolphins 29, Chargers 21at Miami |
| Sep 29, 2019Week 4, 2019 | Chargers 30, Dolphins 10at Miami |