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NFL, Thursday night: a warm-up (it counts for the season, not the weekend)

Make your picks Next lock: Sun 3:25 PM CT

Sharpshooter: closest margins

Sharpshooter ranks the closest margins: Avg miss is how many points your "win by" number was off, on average, on finished games you picked with a number. Lower is better.

#PlayerAvg missPicks
ESPN FPI (model)3.61
Our model (model)4.51
Our call (model)51
SRS (model)5.21
Elo (model)6.81

Nobody has 6 finals picked with a margin yet.

Not ranked yet (6 needed): Joey M. (needs 5 more), Knocka B. (needs 5 more), Knocka B. 2 (needs 5 more), Matt M. (needs 5 more), Michelle B. (needs 5 more).

Two ways to win: most right winners, or Sharpshooter: closest margins. The lowest average margin miss on finals with a 'win by' number; each game's miss counts whether or not the winner was right, capped at 21 points; at least 6 such picks to be ranked; ties: more qualifying picks, then the earlier last pick. Models are shown for reference and never win.